To sharpen his argument, Ferguson deploys two historical comparisons.

Ferguson rejects simple narratives of external shock (e.g., the financial crisis) or moral decline. Instead, he proposes two deep causes:

He argues that for five centuries, Western societies thrived due to six "killer apps": Competition, the Scientific Revolution, the Rule of Law, Modern Medicine, Consumerism, and the Work Ethic. By the 21st century, Ferguson posits, we have forgotten how to maintain these apps. The PDF is essentially a user manual for debugging a broken society.

Ferguson contends that the root cause of this decline is the degeneration of the institutions that have traditionally underpinned Western prosperity. He identifies four key institutions that are essential for economic growth and stability: the rule of law, property rights, social cohesion, and a strong and efficient system of government. However, these institutions are now under threat, and their decline is having a corrosive impact on Western economies.